A broad cross-section of
experts on the region agree: A missile strike could worsen the war in
Syria and usher in a host of new problems.
"The key issue is not the
tactics of the strikes, but the strategic aftermath," says Anthony
Cordesman, a former Defense Department official now with the Center for
Strategic and International Studies.
Most experts believe a
strike would target the Syrian regime's weapons arsenal -- not suspected
sites of chemical weapons stockpiles. The latter would be "the worst
possible option," and could spread chemicals downwind, says Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former commander of the British military's chemical defense regiment.
U.S. officials have said
strikes on command bunkers, airfields or the artillery batteries and
rocket launchers used to fire chemical projectiles are among the
possibilities being considered.
CNN asked analysts to discuss what could follow.
Al Qaeda, extremists emboldened?
"A limited attack could
suppress morale among regime forces and encourage defections and
splits," says Jeffrey White of the Washington Institute for Near East
Policy.
The opposition would be emboldened -- including the al Qaeda-linked al-Nusra Front, analysts say.
"Supporting the
opposition at this point would be like French-kissing al Qaeda," says
Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon official now with the American
Enterprise Institute. "If the opposition wins, al Qaeda will win power."
"There is a real risk
that destabilizing the Assad regime could enable the jihadist and al
Qaeda-affiliated rebel groups," agrees Erica Borghard, author of the
policy analysis "Arms and Influence in Syria: The Pitfalls of Greater
U.S. Involvement."
"These groups are militarily more capable than the rebels currently receiving U.S. support. "
It would be difficult
for the United States to target al-Nusra infrastructure as part of a
missile strike campaign because al-Nusra does not operate with clear
"command-and-control assets" like the regime of Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad, Borghard says.
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